[Serious] Is technical analysis in day trading bs?

Tenshi

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I see a lot of content regarding technical analysis but it all seems too over complicated and tbh not very technical imo, everyone seems to have it's own idea of what this shit is, in fact most things regarding these graphic analysis look more like pseudo/broscience than anything. It has no rule at all most things that are supposed to mean something, sometimes don't with no rules or logical explanations. Is it all bs?
 
Diocel

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Sounds like bullshit to me.
 
gymletethnicel

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BraincelsRefugee

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Honestly day trading itself sounds kinda bs to me. A lot of trading stocks is just luck (right place, right time).
 
Darkleet

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No it’s not bs. There are domains of math which are capable of predicting a function - in this case price of stocks or whatever, provided that you know the price before. There are even AIs that predict this. There are a variety of factors to look for if you do it manually. Also doing it manually is better since the price varies on multiple things, not just the previous price, but also on real life events, new success by companies etc..
 
Simulacrasimulation

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it is by definition absolute crap
read up the definition of stochastic
then come back to me at how many of your technical analysis uses a stochastic tool

now elaborate on how justifying the randomness of an event can give you any insight into a future price or direction

its like saying we dont really understand why prices move and in what direction and when so lets do this
I know the stock market is random lets use a tool which calculates random events or models randomness, thereby admitting that we dont know what the fuck is going on because we have admitted the stock market moves randomly and and now are modelling for random events.
yes this will give me an insight into future prices and moves its logical why didnt you think of this before
 
Hail The Bloatlord

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just buy high and sell low bro
 
Tenshi

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it is by definition absolute crap
read up the definition of stochastic
then come back to me at how many of your technical analysis uses a stochastic tool

now elaborate on how justifying the randomness of an event can give you any insight into a future price or direction

its like saying we dont really understand why prices move and in what direction and when so lets do this
I know the stock market is random lets use a tool which calculates random events or models randomness, thereby admitting that we dont know what the fuck is going on because we have admitted the stock market moves randomly and and now are modelling for random events.
yes this will give me an insight into future prices and moves its logical why didnt you think of this before
yeah it seems pretty illogical when you look at it this way, things get even more weird when they come up with things like fibonacci with imo just sounds like trading astrology, but they swear they can see the patterns and are making money out of it

No it’s not bs. There are domains of math which are capable of predicting a function - in this case price of stocks or whatever, provided that you know the price before. There are even AIs that predict this. There are a variety of factors to look for if you do it manually. Also doing it manually is better since the price varies on multiple things, not just the previous price, but also on real life events, new success by companies etc..
there's just too many variables within prices of stocks which makes me wonder if there's any logic at all on this, by default we should be able to determine purely by TA where's the price's going but quite often the prices move in a way that make no sense and just seem out of ramdomness, my question is just if it does indeed gives your any real advantage or it just the 50% probability or slight above which is basically betting.

just buy high and sell low bro
 
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Babica Yaga

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I think technical analysis is like a self-fulfilling prophecy, because everyone is doing it. Because everyone does it it will have an impact on the price of stocks/crypto when you're short term day trading. Long-term is different though because way more factors need to be taken into account
 
Tenshi

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I think technical analysis is like a self-fulfilling prophecy, because everyone is doing it. Because everyone does it it will have an impact on the price of stocks/crypto when you're short term day trading. Long-term is different though because way more factors need to be taken into account
yeah that's what many people seem to believe as well, if it's worth learning though is a whole different thing

I wonder if traders and TA preachers actually make money out of this, they all seem to be trying to sell courses with their "unique" strategies instead
 
epillepsy

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It may be BS at a basic level, but since many traders believe in technical analysis, it becomes a self-fulfilling prophecy, which makes technical analysis legit.
A lot of the traders are looking at wicks and candles and various technical indicators to decide whether to buy and sell, so even if technical analysis is BS, it still works.
 
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Mostly yes, though stocks do tend to follow a general pattern of logic. If a stock goes up a lot then ppl are going to be selling because they want to take their gains and not stick with something that may be inflated.
 
Arch Anemone

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Look up survivorship bias.
 
Transcended Trucel

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I see a lot of content regarding technical analysis but it all seems too over complicated and tbh not very technical imo, everyone seems to have it's own idea of what this shit is, in fact most things regarding these graphic analysis look more like pseudo/broscience than anything. It has no rule at all most things that are supposed to mean something, sometimes don't with no rules or logical explanations. Is it all bs?
no it can give enough of an edge to make profits. you need do lots of testing tho. I have gotten to 63% success with 1.8:1.0 profit to loss ratio. using MACD on S&P micro futures.
 
Tenshi

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no it can give enough of an edge to make profits. you need do lots of testing tho. I have gotten to 63% success with 1.8:1.0 profit to loss ratio. using MACD on S&P micro futures.
MACD is one of the few indicators I see people saying are legit along with RSI, your ratio seems quite decent but the 63% rate seems not much far from the 50/50. Would you like to elab more on your strategies?
 
Transcended Trucel

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MACD is one of the few indicators I see people saying are legit along with RSI, your ratio seems quite decent but the 63% rate seems not much far from the 50/50. Would you like to elab more on your strategies?
I don't use this strategy any more as it was too much stress and time investment. but basically when momentum is high and days trend is positive by significant margin( >1.5). buy. and vice versa when negative. here is the YouTuber I found it from: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3WzyRqTuFn2iBjBPu-D6HA
as for how much money you can earn monthly depends on your risk tolerance and total starter money.

I found other strategies but again they were too much time investment for me for the profit offered.
 
BBClet

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Yeah it’s bs, I mean if you follow a stock long enough and there’s no major news you may be able to time it’s regular fluctuations
 
LittleDarkAge

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Yeah it's horseshit. I spent a lot of time trying to trade forex using technical analysis and nothing worked. I'm convinced that anyone who claims to teach technical analysis is a scammer