There seems to be stabilization in fertility rates around 1.50

[WizardofSoda]

EU birthrate: 1.50
Russia birthrate: 1.50
US birthrate: 1.66
Iran birthrate: 1.70
Brazil: 1.53
Mexico: 1.63

Call stabilization at 1.575 (as it nicely works out to 75% of the replacement level of 2.10).


Then each generation will be 75% the last generation in size. A generation is ~25 years. It can rapidly reduce population like say a generation has 10 million people.

Start generation: 10 million
Generation 1: 7.5 million
Generation 2: 5.6 million
Generation 3: 4.2 million
Generation 4: 3.1 million

Generation 4 would be 1 century.


If the world was at 10 billion peak, it would then take maybe ~160 years at 1.575 birthrate to fall to 3 billion people. Then about another 160 years to fall to 1 billion. My estimate is 1-2 billion people is sustainable.

 

[trying to ascend]

This only apply to the west, many East Asian countries have lower birth rates than 1.5

 

[SerbBurekConsoomer]

When incels get filtered out from the gene pool it will go back to 2.1.
Women will switch to trad mode as soon as they are able to get men with good genetics.

 

[WizardofSoda]

This only apply to the west, many East Asian countries have lower birth rates than 1.5

Ya if you look at their numbers the East Asian countries are down to like 1.15 and still in the process of falling, they haven't stabilized yet on a level.

In Latin America we haven't seen stabilization yet either, I am only guessing they will end up stabilizing at the European like level.

 

[WizardofSoda]

When incels get filtered out from the gene pool it will go back to 2.1.
Women will switch to trad mode as soon as they are able to get men with good genetics.

I think you are right. This is a necessary filter to get rid of all the genetic shit that has built up in the huge expansion of the human population.

 

[WizardofSoda]

An interesting thing is Europe's population in the year 0, Roman Empire times was estimated at 150 million. In the year 1700.. the European population was still 150 million. It had fluctuated between like 100-150 million for 1,700 years.

 

[ElTruecel]

Yup the only places having some sort of decent birth rate are sub Saharan africa & india

 

[ElTruecel]

An interesting thing is Europe's population in the year 0, Roman Empire times was estimated at 150 million. In the year 1700.. the European population was still 150 million. It had fluctuated between like 100-150 million for 1,700 years.

It was most likely due to the constant war, disease, famines, etc that stabilized this population

 

[SerbBurekConsoomer]

I think you are right. This is a necessary filter to get rid of all the genetic shit that has built up in the huge expansion of the human population.

An interesting thing is Europe's population in the year 0, Roman Empire times was estimated at 150 million. In the year 1700.. the European population was still 150 million. It had fluctuated between like 100-150 million for 1,700 years.

I'm a big fan of demographics and geography but when I got blackpilled it built a whole new perspective. If you want to chat about it with me PM me.

 

[WizardofSoda]

Yup the only places having some sort of decent birth rate are sub Saharan africa & india

India is another interesting one, I'm not sure where it will stabilize either. India's fertility rates by year.

1970: 5.62
1975: 5.20
1980: 4.78
1985: 4.43

1990: 4.05
1995: 3.65
2000: 3.35
2005: 2.96

2010: 2.60
2015: 2.29
2020: 2.05

 

[ElTruecel]

India is another interesting one, I'm not sure where it will stabilize either. India's fertility rates by year.

1970: 5.62
1975: 5.20
1980: 4.78
1985: 4.43

1990: 4.05
1995: 3.65
2000: 3.35
2005: 2.96

2010: 2.60
2015: 2.29
2020: 2.05

Wow even India’s fertility rate has gone down. What happen? Did the curries finally start using condoms, nice. Next step is for curries to stop taking a shit in the streets

 

[WizardofSoda]

It was most likely due to the constant war, disease, famines, etc that stabilized this population

Ya basically the amount of farmland and the crop yields per acre in Europe didn't change much from the year 0 to the year 1700. So it put a hard cap on the population the land could support.

When the population got up at the cap diseases and famine ripped through the people who couldn't get enough food.

 

[ElTruecel]

Ya basically the amount of farmland and the crop yields per acre in Europe didn't change much from the year 0 to the year 1700. So it put a hard cap on the population the land could support.

When the population got up at the cap diseases and famine ripped through the people who couldn't get enough food.

yup.

 

[WizardofSoda]

The East Asian nations can fall off a cliff in demographics like if they are down at 1.05 (half of the 2.10 replacement rate).

Start generation: 10 million
Generation 1: 5 million
Generation 2: 2.5 million
Generation 3: 1.2 million
Generation 4: 0.6 million

Generation 4 would be 1 century.